Hi Tyrants! Thanks for an interesting rundown on the stats!
If I may provide some criticism, I think that you’re sometimes overstating what the numbers mean. If a matchup goes 3-1, or a faction goes 15-10, that could very well be random chance. I don’t think you can say with any confidence that one matchup is favored or one faction is stronger.
Only three factions - Grymkin, Shadows of the Retribution, and Winter Corps - show a statistically significant win rate, with an approximately 99% chance to not be random for Grymkin and Shadows, and 98% for Winter Corps. First player winning 57% of the games is also 99% to not be random. After that, Skorn Exalted going 8-2 has a 95% chance to not be random, but that is only two players!
Add to this that the WTC matching process affects which matchups will happen, the 57% going first WR, the varying levels of skill with a low number of individual players for most factions.
I think everything but the Shadows, Grymkin, Winter Corps, and starting player WR should probably be considered statistical noise, until we have a lot more games recorded.
Anyway! I like your podcast, I enjoyed your pre-WTC rundown of all the lists, must have been a huge effort, much appreciated! Thanks!